Week 15 (April 30 - May 2, 2018)

Note: I have posted last year’s final exam. I don’t have a set of grading guidelines for this one typed out, but I’m happy to discuss any of the problems in office hours. [Read More]

Week 14 (April 23-25, 2018)

This week, we continue our study of parametric probability models by talking about the bivariate normal distribution, and about the stock market. [Read More]

Week 13 (April 16-18, 2018)

On Monday, we will Chapter 14 of the course packet, on parametric probability models. Main topics include: the binomial distribution. the Poisson distribution. Monte Carlo simulation based on parametric models. [Read More]

Week 12 (April 9-11, 2018)

On Monday, we will finish Chapter 12 of the course packet, on independence and compounding. We will focus on the topic of lurking variables and the fallacy of mistaken compounding. Our in-class case study will involve a close look at the topic of contraceptive effectiveness: Contraceptive effectiveness chart. Scroll all... [Read More]

Week 11 (April 2-4, 2018)

Links from last week on mammogram screening, NNT, etc: New York Times article describing the change and the controversy. An editorial by three doctors takes the opposite side from the American Cancer Society. The actual review paper that summarizes the medical literature is: Myers et. al. “Benefits and Harms of... [Read More]