On Monday, we will finish Chapter 12 of the course packet, on independence and compounding. We will focus on the topic of lurking variables and the fallacy of mistaken compounding. Our in-class case study will involve a close look at the topic of contraceptive effectiveness:

- Contraceptive effectiveness chart. Scroll all the way to the bottom for the chart.
- How likely is it that birth control will let you down?

If there is any time available, we will introduce Chapter 13, on Bayes’ rule.

On Wednesday, we finish Chapter 13. Key ideas:

- prior and posterior probabilities
- likelihood
- confusion matrix
- base-rate neglect

### Software

You should base your homework this work off the green_match.R script from a couple of weeks ago, which demonstrates the basic skills of matching (and matching + regression) for estimating a causal effect.

### Readings

By Monday of next week (week 13), please read:

- All of Chapter 13, on Bayes’ rule.
- Chapter 14 through 270 (stopping at the top of page 271). You can safely skip the subsection entitled “Advanced topic: a derivation of the binomial distribution.”

### Exercises

Exercises 7 this week are on cause-and-effect reasoning and basic probability. They are due in class next on Monday, April 16.