On Monday, we will finish Chapter 12 of the course packet, on independence and compounding. Main topics include:
- everyday risks and the compounding rule
- using data to check for independence
- lurking variables and mistaken compounding
- mistaken compounding: the example of contraceptive effectiveness
If there is any time available, we will introduce Chapter 13, on Bayes’ rule.
On Wednesday, we finish Chapter 13. Key ideas:
- prior and posterior probabilities
- likelihood
- confusion matrix
- base-rate neglect
Software
You should base your homework this work off the green_match.R script from a couple of weeks ago, which demonstrates the basic skills of matching (and matching + regression) for estimating a causal effect.
Readings
For Monday of next week, please read:
- All of Chapter 13, on Bayes’ rule.
- pages 281-291 (stopping at the top of page 292) on Chapter 14. You can safely skip the subsection entitled “Advanced topic: a derivation of the binomial distribution.”
Exercises
Exercises 7 this week are on cause-and-effect reasoning and basic probability. They are due in class on April 17.